India's richest state, Maharashtra, is experiencing a long
political drama that threatens the fate of its government.
As many as 35 lawmakers - led by the influential Secretary
of State Eknath Shinde - are hiding in a hotel in the north-eastern city of
Guwahati, thousands of miles from Maharashtra.
He belongs to the Shiv Sena party, which now rules
Maharashtra as part of a coalition of the Congress Party and the Regional
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).
Shinde - who has been a part of Shiv Sena for decades -
claims to be acting in the interests of his party. But his uprising brought the
state government to the brink of collapse. On Wednesday evening, Prime Minister
Uddhav Thackeray, who is also headed by Shiv Sena, left his official residence
after giving an emotional speech urging rebel lawmakers to return and talk to
him.
Why is revolt important?
Maharashtra is one of India's largest states and is
politically important for all national parties - it is home to the Indian
financial capital Mumbai, the Bollywood film industry and some of the country's
largest industries.
The development of the state often has a direct impact on
national policy.
Since 2019, it has been led by a unique coalition consisting
of the sharply right-wing Shiva Sena, the Central NCP and Congress, along with
independent lawmakers. Together, they managed to combine enough to outnumber
the 144 lawmakers in a 288-member assembly that opposed the ruling Bharatiya
Janata Party of India (BJP), which won the most seats.
The alliance was formed after Shiv Sena split with the BJP,
its longtime ally, after differences in power. Although they shared a similar
ideology, the two Hindu nationalist parties had an unpleasant relationship in
the years before the divorce.
Shiv Sena began as an ethnic, nativist party to promote the
interest of the Marathi-speaking people in Mumbai. After the collapse of the
original ballot box, it established itself as a party representing Hindu
interests, and its base was traditionally anti-congress. That is why his
alliance with Congress is raising many eyebrows and producing predictions of
political destruction. But Mr Thackeray and his allies have been able to cope
with many crises - so far.
Reports say Mr Shinde is interested in reviving the BJP
alliance and bringing it back to state power. If he gets the support of more
Shiv Sena lawmakers, the current coalition government will lose a majority.
How did it begin?
The crisis began after Mr Shinde became
"unreachable" after Monday's state legislature election.
Shiv Sena and her allies were predicted to win six out of 10
places, but only five. The BJP, which is supposed to win only four, won another
five, amid reports of a rebel cross-voting from Sena.
Media reports said that Mr Shinde and 11 other senators had
left the city of Surat in the western state of Gujarat - where the BJP
government is in power.
Mr Thackeray responded by rejecting Shinde as a party whip.
Shinde then released Shiv Sena from his Twitter profile and was spotted meeting
with BJP leaders who later visited him at his hotel in Gujarat.
what's going on now
Shinde and his supporters flew to Guwahati, Assam, which is
also ruled by the BJP, on Tuesday night, shortly after a telephone conversation
with Mr Thackeray.
The Indian Express newspaper quoted sources as saying that
the group had been partially relocated to Assam because Gujarat was "too
close to Maharashtra" - increasing the risk that unfortunate lawmakers
would return to Mr. Thackeray.
The MP, who returned to Maharashtra on Wednesday, said he
had been forcibly taken to Surat and admitted to hospital when he tried to
protest. He said he had been "misled" by Mr Shinde's supporters and
brought to Gujarat under false pretences’ - and that he had escaped.
To avoid disqualification under the Indian Defect Law, Mr.
Shinde needs the support of 37 state legislators. He demanded the support of 40
Sena legislators and six independents, but the number has yet to be confirmed
independently.
Shinde acknowledged that his confession had been obtained
through torture and that his confession had been obtained through torture and
that his confession had been obtained through torture.
Supreme Leader Shiv Sena Sanjay Raut accused the BJP of
insurgency within his party and accused it of overthrowing the coalition
government. However, top officials of the BJP denied that the crisis was
"an internal matter of Shiva Sena."
On Wednesday night, hundreds of Shiv Sena supporters stood
in the rain at night to pledge their support to Mr Thackeray as he travelled to
his home - some even cried when he greeted them - and made his journey a
"show of strength." news.
Whether this - and further negotiations - will be enough to
persuade enough lawmakers to return to the party masses and support the
crisis-stricken government remains to be seen.