For Bitcoin, there’s only been one constant recently:
decline after decline after decline. And the superlatives have piled up really
quickly.
With the Federal Reserve intending to withdraw stimulus from
the market, riskier assets the world over have suffered. Bitcoin, the largest
digital asset, lost more than 12% Friday and dropped below $36,000 to its
lowest level since July. Since its peak in November, it has lost over 45% of
its value. Other digital currencies have suffered just as much, with Ether and
meme coins mired in similar drawdowns.
Bitcoin’s decline since that November high has wiped out
more than $600 billion in market value, and over $1 trillion has been lost from
the aggregate crypto market. While there have been much larger percentage
drawdowns for both Bitcoin and the aggregate market, this marks the
second-largest ever decline in dollar terms for both, according to Bespoke
Investment Group.
“It gives an idea of the scale of value destruction that
percentage declines can mask,†wrote Bespoke analysts in a note. “Crypto is, of
course, vulnerable to these sorts of selloffs given its naturally higher
volatility historically, but given how large market caps have gotten, the
volatility is worth thinking about both in raw dollar terms as well as in
percentage terms.â€
With the Fed’s intentions rocking both cryptocurrencies and
stocks, a dominant theme has emerged in the digital-asset space: cryptos have
twisted and turned in nearly exactly the same way as equities have.
“Crypto is reacting to the same kind of dynamics that are
weighing on risk-assets globally,†said Stephane Ouellette, chief executive and
co-founder of institutional crypto-platform FRNT Financial. “Unfortunately for
some of the mature projects like BTC, there is so much cross-correlation within
the crypto asset class it’s almost a certainty that it falls, at least
temporarily in a broader alt-coin valuation contraction.â€
Crypto-centric stocks also dropped on Friday, with Coinbase
Global Inc. at one point losing nearly 16% and falling to its lowest level
since its public debut in the spring of 2021, Bloomberg data show.
MicroStrategy Inc. tumbled 18% while the Securities and
Exchange Commission said the company can’t strip out Bitcoin’s wild swings from
the unofficial accounting measures it touts to investors. The enterprise
software company’s pile of Bitcoin has effectively made its shares a proxy for
the pile of Bitcoin has effectively made its shares a proxy for the digital
asset.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration is preparing to release
an initial government-wide strategy for digital assets as soon as next month
and task federal agencies with assessing the risks and opportunities that they
pose, according to people familiar with the matter.
Antoni Trenchev, Nexo co-founder and managing partner, cites
Bitcoin’s correlation to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which right now is near the
highest in a decade.
“Bitcoin is being battered by a wave of risk-off sentiment.
For further cues, keep an eye on traditional markets,†he said. “Fear and
unease among investors is palpable.â€
Take also the correlation between Bitcoin and Cathie Wood’s
ARK Innovation ETF (ticker ARKK), a pandemic poster-child of speculative
risk-taking. That correlation stands at around 60% year-to-date, versus about
14% for the price of gold, according to Katie Stockton, founder and managing
partner of Fairlead Strategies, a research firm focused on technical analysis.
It’s “reminding us to categorize Bitcoin and altcoins as risk assets rather
than safe havens,†she said.
Kara Murphy, chief investment officer at Kestra Investment
Management, said cryptocurrencies have a life of their own but that the recent
slump is rational.
“It makes sense as people start to retrench a little bit,
look for something that’s a little bit more solid, they’re gonna move away from
crypto,†she said. “On the margin, with folks becoming more risk averse, crypto
will suffer from that.â€